Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Five Reasons Broxton Makes Sense

As Bob Lemon said, the two most important
things in life are good friends and a strong bullpen.
For the better part of the season, Reds fans have called attention to the lack of production out of the first two spots in the batting order, which are usually occupied by rookie shortstop Zack Cozart and centerfielder Drew Stubbs. Many reasons have been given for the Reds' woeful offense: Dusty Baker's lineups, the inexperience of the rookies, and the fact that Drew Stubbs has looked blind at the plate for much of the season. Given the fact that the Reds, who are currently sitting atop all of baseball with a 62-41 record, have accomplished so much without a good top of the order is both astounding and perplexing. With Tuesday's trade deadline looming, it only made sense for the Reds to pick up some help for their offense, right?

But they didn't. Instead, they went with the hard-throwing right-hander Jonathan Broxton to be the Reds' setup man down the stretch run. He isn't coming in to help with the offense, so clearly the Reds' front office missed something here, right?

Wrong. Here's why.

1. The Ondrusek Problem
Much has been made of the fact that the Reds turned down a deal that would have sent Logan Ondrusek to the Philadelphia Phillies for Shane Victorino. Clearly this move indicated that Ondrusek was thought highly of by the club and valuable enough to keep around in what was already the best bullpen in the league. So the Broxton setup man move makes little sense, right? Well, let's consider something about Ondrusek that might, in fact, be coincidental but is surely telling. In years past, Ondrusek's second half meltdowns have been attributed to being overworked. Broxton, on the other hand, actually gets stronger in the second half of the season, posting opponent batting averages of .233 and .218 in August and September respectively (in contrast with Ondrusek's .333 and .205 averages in August and September). The .205 average for Ondrusek in September might be a valid point, but Broxton's also been doing it longer, pitching 65+ innings in September compared to Ondrusek's 20+. In the best case scenario, Broxton becomes a lockdown setup man. In the worst case scenario, he buys innings for Ondrusek to dominate later in the season. It's a win-win situation.

2. No Strikeouts, No Problem
On the season, Broxton's strikeout to walk rate is just 1.79, which is higher than Ondrusek's 1.18 but still not very high for a setup man who throws 95mph. In recent years, Broxton has transitioned from being a strikeout king (typically throwing in excess of 97mph) to being a ground ball pitcher (56.6 GB% rate). Concerns about pitching in GABP have centered around losing that fastball velocity, but his groundball rate clearly shows he has what it takes to pitch well in hitter-friendly parks. By the way, Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City has a Park Factor (a score over 100 favors hitters) at 101, just 7 below Great American Ball Park's 108 (contrast this with Petco Park's 89 score). Broxton has posted a 2.27 ERA in a hitter-friendly park, so there's no reason to believe his success won't travel.

3. Keep It Short
The 1990 Cincinnati Reds went wire to wire on the strength of their pitching staff. The real bulls on the staff were in the back end of the bullpen with the affectionately named Nasty Boys, Rob Dibble (1.74 ERA) and Randy Myers (2.08 ERA and 31 saves). That's filthy. The Reds 1-2 punch now features Jonathan Broxton (2.27 ERA) and Aroldis Chapman (1.42 ERA). That's filthy too. Not to mention the fact that the Reds also have Sean Marshall (2.48 ERA), Logan Ondrusek (2.95 ERA), and former setup man Nick Masset set to return to action soon. The Reds middle relief corps actually features 3-4 setup men with the hammer Aroldis Chapman in the back end of the 'pen. It's a scary thought that come playoff time the Reds starters will only have to have a lead after six innings to nail down a win. The addition of Broxton shortens the game by one more inning, which is incredibly valuable down the stretch run because it takes pressure off your offense to perform.

4. What It Takes To Compete
The Pittsburgh Pirates, a team built similarly to the Reds, have a setup man by the name of Jason Grilli who, despite not getting a lot of headlines, is posting excellent numbers out of the setup role (1.86 ERA on the season). Sean Burnett of the Washington Nationals has posted a 2.08 ERA. Do you know what they have in common? Sergio Romo of the San Francisco Giants has posted a 2.30 ERA. All of their closers have at least 20 saves on the season (Hanrahan 31, Clippard 20, Casilla 24). The Reds are likely to face at least one of those teams in the playoffs this year and it will be important to nail down victories when your team has the lead.

5. Reds' Come To Play
An appropriate response might be "but you won't have a lead against the best teams without a better leadoff hitter!" That's true of the Reds... or is it? Thus far this season, the Reds have beaten Adam Wainwright (twice), Matt Cain (twice), C.C. Sabathia, and Brandon Beachy, all of whom are staff aces on contending teams (whether Beachy is an ace or not is debatable, but his 2.00 ERA is not). They have also forced no decisions on Ryan Vogelsong (2.22 ERA), Justin Verlander, and R.A. Dickey, all three of whom are Cy Young candidates. The Reds aren't getting destroyed against the best pitching in the league even in spite of their poor top of the order. The Reds come to play each and every game, regardless of who the pitcher is. Adding .50 points to your leadoff hitter's OBP isn't going to make the Reds suddenly step up against the best pitchers in the game because they've already done that all season.

Broxton is going to help the Reds down the stretch run in hoping to capture their second division title in three years. I've thought the club needed to grab a lockdown right-handed setup man for the eighth inning for months. I'm happy to see they did, as the Reds have once again acquired a duo worthy of bearing the title of the Nasty Boys.

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