A Closer Look At the Reds' Offensive Woes

Much of the clamoring of Reds fans has been concerning the lack of offense displayed by their beloved team seemingly each and every night. Most of this has centered around their unproductive play from whoever they put in the first two spots of the order. In this post, I want to take a closer look at the Reds offensive woes in detail.

I will begin by stating the obvious: This Cincinnati team is worse offensively than they were in 2010. They are currently on pace to score over a hundred runs less than the 2010 team. However, if we do a comparison of this year's lineup to the 2010 lineup, we might see some areas of improvement that we hadn't previously considered.

I want to draw your attention to a couple of things in my argument. First, the numbers I have listed for the 2010 lineup are their total season numbers, not their numbers through 97 games. However, I only have data for the first 97 games of the 2012 lineup, so that's obviously what I relied on. Second, the stats listed for the players in these lineups are only the stats they accumulated while batting in that spot in the order. For instance, Jay Bruce has 20 home runs this year, but has hit only 17 while batting 5th. This is advantageous because it allows us to see exactly where production is coming from in certain spots in the lineup. The players listed are those who have started the most games in that spot in the order.

Reds fans frustrated with the top of the Reds
lineup would probably give their left arm
to see this guy back in the top of the order.

2012 Lineup:

1. Cozart .217/.259/.360, 33 R
2. Stubbs .240/.311/.426, 35 R
3. Votto .340/.463/.603, 14 HR, 49 RBI
4. Phillips .303/.344/.460, 10 HR, 50 RBI
5. Bruce .241/.319/.500, 17 HR, 55 RBI
6. Ludwick .255/.320/.450 9 HR, 24 RBI
7. Frazier .298/.357/.649, 9 HR, 23 RBI
8. Hanigan .258/.343/.337 2 HR, 11 RBI

2010 Lineup:

1. Phillips .251/.302/.394, 41 R
2. Cabrera .298/.333/.415, 39 R
3. Votto .325/.424/.602, 37 HR, 113 RBI
4. Rolen .282/.355/.468, 13 HR, 71 RBI
5. Gomes.259/.328/.387 7 HR, 40 RBI
6. Bruce .270/.342/.451, 9 HR, 30 RBI
7. Stubbs .268/.332/.452, 12 HR, 51 RBI
8. Hernandez .292/.360/.381, 2 HR, 18 RBI

After digesting those numbers, I want to now do some analysis.

First of all, you will notice the home run totals are comparable up and down the lineup with the exception of Joey Votto. But who is to blame for that except Votto? In my opinion, I think it's time Reds fans begin to realize that Votto is not a 40 homer per year guy and that his stats reflect exactly the type of hitter he is: a gap hitter and a walk machine. Votto's lack of home runs should not be surprising or alarming.

Ryan Ludwick is the 2012 version of Jonny Gomes,
but with less mohawk and better defense.

Second and perhaps most alarming, the RBI totals are way down in the top part of the lineup. However, aside from Joey Votto's sharp decrease in numbers (if he plays 50 more games this season, he will be projected to finish with 77 RBIs), the Reds' RBI production has actually improved. Assuming that Votto returns for the final 50 games of the season, Phillips would finish with 84 RBIs batting 4th, Bruce would finish with 89 RBIs in the 5th spot, and Ludwick would finish with 50 RBI in the 6th spot (*projected for 40 of last 50 games). The total improvement in those three spots in the lineup would be a total of 43, which offsets the production lost by Votto's bat in the 3 spot.

Third, notice that the run production from the 1 and 2 spots in the lineup has nearly eclipsed the final totals from 2010 already. An astute objection to this statistic is that Cabrera and Phillips both took turns batting leadoff throughout the 2010 season. My response: so do Drew Stubbs and Zack Cozart. In 2010, Phillips and Cabrera combined for 137 runs scored when batting either 1st or 2nd. In 2012, Stubbs and Cozart have combined for 97 runs scored when batting either 1st or 2nd. They will eclipse the mark set in 2010 for production out of the first two slots in the lineup by the end of the season.

This does not excuse the Reds from their offensive woes. Anyone who actually watches the games will surely tell you about their inability to lay down sacrifice bunts, to run the bases well, and, until recently, to hit with runners in scoring position. As I noted above, the Reds are on pace to score over a hundred runs less than 2010. The difference? They're on pace to give up over a hundred fewer.

So what does all this mean? Well, first it means that this comparison may seem useless, because I plainly agreed with my initial premise. No one can deny that the 2010 team was a much better offensive team; indeed, they won games on the force of their offense. However, we must note that the difference between the pitching and defense of the 2010 Cincinnati Reds and the 2012 Cincinnati Reds is far greater than the difference between the offenses of both of those clubs. This 2012 team has obviously shown that they are scoring enough to win games and that they have chosen which calling cards to rely on come playoff time: pitching and defense. Despite making those things their calling cards, the only drop off they have offensively is about 20 home runs from Joey Votto, which should not be surprising or upsetting given his approach at the plate and the approach pitchers take to him.

Trivial Stats: The 2010 Cincinnati Reds lost the final game of the first half of the season, watching their record fall to 49-41 before the break. The 2012 Cincinnati Reds are seventeen games over .500 at 57-40, a mark that the 2010 team did not accomplish until August 17, 2010.